AUD/USD’s fall from 0.7277 resumed by breaking through 0.7076 last week. Initial bias is now on the downside this week for 100% projection of 0.7277 to 0.7076 from 0.7200 at 0.6999. A firm break there will target the 161.8% projection at 0.6875. Near-term risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.7200 resistance holds, in case of recovery.
Bigger Picture
Considering the bearish divergence condition in the daily MACD, a medium-term top could be formed at 0.7277 after failing to sustain above the 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 (2021 high) to 0.5913 (2024 low) at 0.7206. Deeper fall could be seen to the 38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.7277 at 0.6756 as a correction. Strong support should be seen there to bring a rebound. Consolidations would continue below 0.7277 for a while.
Long-Term Picture
The rise from 0.5913 is seen as the third leg of the whole pattern from 0.5506 (2020 low). It is still early to judge whether this is an impulsive or corrective pattern. In either case, further rise should be seen back to 0.8006 and possibly above. This will remain the favored scenario as long as the 55-week EMA (now at 0.6804) holds.
