Near-Term Outlook
EUR/JPY’s steep decline last week suggests that it’s already in the third leg of the pattern from 187.93. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 180.78 support. A decisive break there will indicate that the pair is already correcting the whole rise from 154.77 to 187.93. Deeper fall should then be seen to the 38.2% retracement of 154.77 to 187.93 at 175.26. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 185.15 minor resistance holds, in case of recovery.
Medium-Term Picture
In the bigger picture, the uptrend from 114.42 (2020 low) is still expected to resume at a later stage to the 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88. However, a sustained break of the 55-week EMA (now at 180.17) will argue that the pair is already in a medium-term downtrend toward 175.41 resistance turned support and below.
Long-Term Picture
In the long-term picture, the uptrend from 94.11 (2021 low) remains in progress. The next target is the 138.2% projection of 94.11 to 149.76 (2014 high) from 114.42 (2020 low) at 191.32. This remains the favored scenario as long as the 55-week EMA holds.
