EUR/CAD maintains its position after three days of gains, trading around 1.6170 during the European session on Thursday. The currency cross remains steady as the Euro moves little following surprisingly upbeat economic data out of Germany.
German Consumer Confidence Beats Forecasts
The September GfK Consumer Confidence Survey improved significantly to -26.6, climbing from -29.4 in August and soundly beating market forecasts that had anticipated a slight dip to -29.6. Looking ahead, traders are turning their focus to the release of the ECB’s Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts due later in the day, which will be thoroughly analysed for fresh insights regarding the Eurozone’s interest rate trajectory.
Canadian Dollar Weighed by Lower Oil Prices
The EUR/CAD cross receives additional support as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar struggles amid lower oil prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude trades around $81.10 per barrel.
Crude oil prices have declined amid signs of diplomatic progress in the Middle East. Iran and Oman reached an agreement over each country’s share of the Strait of Hormuz’s waters and related revenues, although Tehran cautioned that reopening the crucial waterway would require more than an agreement with Oman. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said 10 million barrels of oil had passed through Hormuz on Tuesday, while reiterating claims that mines in the waterway had been cleared.
Ukraine Strikes and Iran War Deepen Pressure on Oil Supply
Strategists at Rabobank caution that, while broader market concerns over energy security remain “still a hypothetical that markets can ignore for now,” the latest developments are clearly intensifying stress across the complex. They note that “the Ukrainian strikes are adding pressure to the energy complex,” with Ukraine having “forced another outage at the second-largest Russian gasoline producer,” while “Moscow will extend the diesel export ban through September according to Reuters’ sources.” Rabobank argues these emerging “supply shocks add to the disruptions from the Iran war,” reinforcing the risk of more persistent tightness in oil and refined product markets if such outages and bans are prolonged. Combined, these supply-side pressures continue to underpin volatility in crude markets and weigh on the Canadian Dollar’s near-term outlook.
GfK Consumer Confidence Survey — Key Data
| Release date | Thu Aug 27, 2026 |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Actual | -26.6 |
| Consensus | -29.6 |
| Previous | -29.6 |
| Source | Growth from Knowledge (GfK) |
The GfK Consumer Confidence index measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. A high reading is generally considered positive for the Euro, while a low reading is seen as bearish.
