EUR/USD probed again through strong barriers at 1.1560/66 (100DMA / daily cloud top) on Monday, following Friday’s false break higher, but continues to face headwinds at this zone.
The single currency benefited from weak NFP data that further deflated the dollar on Friday, pressured by fading expectations for a Fed rate hike in September, but so far lacks the strength for a final break.
Near-term structure remains firm as bullishly aligned daily studies continue to underpin the action, with extended consolidation (1.1515/1.1560) likely to precede a fresh push higher.
Markets await the release of US July CPI data on Wednesday to add fresh details to the near-term policy outlook, with the euro expected to benefit from weaker inflation.
A sustained break of the 100DMA / cloud top would generate a fresh bullish signal for an attack at the nearby Fibonacci barrier at 1.1586 (50% retracement of 1.1849/1.1324), which guards the next target at 1.1626 (200DMA).
Extended dips should ideally be contained above broken Fibonacci 38.2% resistance at 1.1524 to keep bulls in play. Caution is warranted on a break of the 1.1500 support zone (broken bull-channel upper boundary / round-figure), which would signal a deeper pullback.
Res: 1.1566 | 1.1586 | 1.1626 | 1.1649
Sup: 1.1524 | 1.1500 | 1.1484 | 1.1460
