GBP/USD’s rise from 1.3135 resumed with a late breach of 1.3418. Initial bias is back on the upside this week for the 61.8% retracement of 1.3675 to 1.3135 at 1.3469. A sustained break there will target 1.3675 resistance next. Risk will stay on the upside as long as 1.3271 support holds, in case of retreat.
Medium-Term Outlook
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3867 are a corrective pattern within the broader uptrend from 1.0351 (2022 low). With 1.3008 support intact, medium-term bullishness is maintained and a break of 1.3867 is favored at a later stage, targeting the 1.4248 key resistance level (2021 high). However, a firm break of 1.3008 will at least bring a deeper fall to the 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3867 at 1.2524, with increased risk of bearish reversal.
Long-Term Outlook
In the long-term picture, as long as the 1.4248/4480 resistance zone holds — defined by the 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.0351 at 1.4480 — the long-term outlook will remain bearish. Price actions from 1.0351 are therefore seen as a corrective pattern within the broader downtrend from 2.1161 (2007 high). Nevertheless, a decisive break of the 1.4248/4480 zone would be a strong sign of a long-term bullish reversal.
