Gold is finding itself in a rather troubling spot to kick start the new week as price continues to test a potential break below the $4,000 mark. Looking at the chart, this will be a rather important test for buyers if they are to hold on to some semblance of hope for a rebound in ending October trading.
Despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and the recent retreat in Treasury yields, gold has struggled to find much upside traction lately. The rebound in August and September has faded completely, and a pattern of lower highs and lower lows is now developing as sellers gradually regain the upper hand.
The $4,000 level is still holding for now, with price hovering around $4,007. A confirmed technical breakdown cannot be called just yet. However, repeated tests of a major support level without a convincing rebound are not encouraging.
Key Support Levels to Watch
The swing lows around $3,942–$3,960 provide an additional layer of defense to the $4,000 mark. However, a firm break below the figure level — and especially a convincing daily close below it — could be enough to trigger further downside momentum in the precious metal.
That scenario could pave the way for a deeper correction towards the 100-week moving average, currently around $3,870. That level is particularly significant, as gold has not tested its 100-week moving average since October 2023. It also sits near the October to November 2025 lows, making the region a potentially important area for buyers to regroup should selling pressure intensify.
Upside Hurdles for a Recovery
The immediate challenge for gold buyers is to keep price above $4,000 and build a more convincing recovery. The first upside hurdle is reclaiming the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages, seen at $4,076 and $4,114 respectively. Beyond those, getting back above $4,117 and the more significant $4,200 level would offer encouragement that downside momentum is beginning to ease. Until then, the balance of risks remains tilted to the downside for gold.
The one bright spot for buyers is that this chart has not actually broken down yet. The $4,000 mark is the real test — the line between a market that is vulnerable and one that still has the potential to recover. Whether buyers can defend that figure level will determine which scenario plays out.
