Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson Baghaei has insisted that a “binary choice of negotiations or war is not useful,” maintaining that “diplomacy does not negate defense” and that “defense is not incompatible with diplomacy.” He added that Iran has received several proposals from mediators for the resumption of negotiations.
While the headlines may point to a degree of renewed optimism, it remains too early to prejudge the outcome. Nuclear and uranium negotiations are unlikely to produce meaningful results, as key red lines continue to hold firm on both sides. In the broader picture, this appears to be precisely what Iran is pursuing — keeping diplomatic channels open while playing for time and prolonging the process for as long as possible.
Baghaei went on to say that talks with the US may be possible, but only if pursued on the basis of national interests. Even so, negotiations could break down again the moment missile strikes are exchanged. With Iran showing no intention of relinquishing influence over the Strait of Hormuz, the situation may not differ significantly from where things stood in recent weeks.
For markets, this risks becoming a cycle of Groundhog Day — repeatedly taking one step back before moving one step forward — with no clear resolution in sight.
