In the video above, I take a look at the technicals driving the EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD. After the USD rose during the North American session — erasing earlier declines and closing little changed — it is lower today, declining -0.37% versus the GBP and -0.28% versus the EUR. Versus the JPY, the greenback is lower by -0.12%.

The US dollar is also lower versus the Canadian dollar by -0.19%. I take a look at the technicals ahead of the dual jobs report releases at the bottom of the hour.

Yields in the US are modestly lower (less than 1 basis point). US stocks in premarket trading are mixed, with the Dow higher and the Nasdaq under pressure. Futures are implying:

  • Dow: +100 points
  • S&P 500: -29.06 points
  • Nasdaq: -296 points

Crude oil prices are modestly lower, down $0.14 on the day at $92.88. Gold is down $6.80 or -0.14%, and silver is down $1.08 or -1.3%.

Bitcoin is lower, reaching a new cycle low of $61,073. The next target would be the February 6 low at $59,930. The current price is trading off the lows at $61,928.

Jobs Reports at 8:30 AM ET

At 8:30 AM ET, both the United States and Canada will release their May employment reports, making this one of the most important economic events of the week for North American markets. Traders will be closely watching the US Non-Farm Payrolls report for clues on the pace of hiring, wage growth, and labor market strength, while Canada’s employment data will provide insight into whether the labor market is stabilizing after last month’s job losses. The results are likely to influence expectations for future Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada policy decisions and could trigger volatility in currencies, bonds, and equity markets.

United States — May Employment Report Expectations

  • Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP): +85K vs. +115K prior
  • Private Payrolls: +85K vs. +123K prior
  • Manufacturing Payrolls: +2K vs. -2K prior
  • Unemployment Rate: 4.3% vs. 4.3% prior
  • Average Hourly Earnings (MoM): +0.3% vs. +0.2% prior
  • Average Hourly Earnings (YoY): +3.4% vs. +3.6% prior
  • Average Workweek: 34.3 hours vs. 34.3 prior
  • Labor Force Participation Rate: 61.8%
  • U6 Underemployment Rate: 8.2%

Canada — May Employment Report Expectations

  • Employment Change: +10.0K vs. -17.7K prior
  • Unemployment Rate: 6.9% vs. 6.9% prior
  • Participation Rate: 65.1% vs. 65.0% prior
  • Average Hourly Wages (Permanent Employees YoY): 4.8%
  • Full-Time Employment Change: Prior -46.7K
  • Part-Time Employment Change: Prior +29.0K

What Markets Will Be Watching

  • Whether US job growth slows further toward the 100K level.
  • Whether US wage growth remains firm despite softer hiring. With inflation elevated, wages falling behind removes purchasing power from consumers while also raising production costs for corporations.
  • Whether Canada’s labor market rebounds from April’s decline.
  • Any surprises that could alter expectations for Fed or Bank of Canada interest-rate policy.

Overnight: Lebanon / Hezbollah Front

Israel’s deadly strikes are continuing across Lebanon, killing at least six people today, despite the announcement of a new US-brokered ceasefire agreed between Lebanese and Israeli officials in Washington. Israel is also ordering the forced displacement of at least nine towns and villages in southern Lebanon.

An Israeli soldier was killed by a Hezbollah anti-tank missile in southern Lebanon on Thursday, on the first day of the latest ceasefire attempt. Hezbollah, which is not party to the deal, has rejected the pact.

US–Iran Diplomacy

President Trump warned he would quickly resume military action if US troops are killed, as an adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader accused him of pressuring Tehran for concessions while keeping US commitments unclear. Trump said Iran negotiations could show progress “over the weekend,” even as he warned the US could return to military action if talks fail. Iran has informed Pakistan of its acceptance of transferring uranium to a third-party country, but the US has declined to release Iran’s frozen funds as part of any arrangement. Iran’s navy also fired warning shots toward a US destroyer in a separate incident. Trump additionally said Thursday he would be open to meeting with Iran’s new supreme leader if an agreement to end the conflict is reached.