As the North American session gets underway, the U.S. dollar is modestly higher, gaining less than 0.10% against the euro and British pound and about 0.20% versus the Japanese yen.

While the dollar remains well below the levels seen following yesterday’s stronger-than-expected PPI report — helped by the decline following President Trump’s announcement that a deal was done — today’s price action has been more back-and-forth than directional, and has not seen a resumption of the U.S. selling. That indecision has pulled the major currency pairs back into technically neutral territory.

The lack of sustained breakout momentum has returned prices to the cluster of key technical levels that have helped define the trading ranges and directional bias for much of the past month. Buyers and sellers continue to battle around those areas, but neither side has yet been able to seize lasting control.

Much like the market’s hope for progress toward a peace agreement in the Middle East, traders are still waiting for the U.S. dollar to make a decisive move out of its recent ranges. Until that happens, the major pairs remain trapped between competing technical forces.

In this video, the technical outlook for the three major currency pairs is broken down, highlighting the key levels that are defining the bias, identifying the important risk points, and outlining the targets traders are watching next.

Iran Deal Update

Trump declared that a “great settlement” had been reached with Iran to end the three-month war, saying he expects a formal deal to be signed in the coming days. He also reassured Israel that any agreement will include the removal of Iran’s enriched nuclear material. The framework being discussed is a Memorandum of Understanding — not a full peace treaty — that would serve as the foundation for longer-term negotiations.

Even as the deal was being announced, U.S. forces reportedly shot down two Iranian attack drones near the Strait of Hormuz early Friday after Iranian forces reportedly fired on a transiting vessel — a reminder of how volatile the situation remains even during active diplomacy.

Key sticking points remain: freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, the future of Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile program, reconstruction costs, and sanctions relief. Iran has insisted it retains the right to enrich uranium, while the U.S. is demanding full removal of enriched material.

The deal is close but not done. Markets on Friday will be watching closely for any formal signing announcement — a confirmed MOU would likely send oil sharply lower and trigger a significant risk-on rally across equities.

SpaceX IPO

SpaceX is set to make history with what is expected to be the largest IPO ever. The company is reportedly pricing shares at $135, raising roughly $75 billion, and targeting a valuation near $1.77 trillion. The stock is expected to trade on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX. Investor demand has been exceptionally strong, with the offering reportedly oversubscribed and significant participation from both institutional and retail investors.

For markets, the IPO could become a major liquidity event and a key test of investor appetite for high-growth, high-valuation companies. Index providers have already signaled that SpaceX could be added quickly to several major benchmarks, potentially creating significant passive fund demand shortly after the listing.

Market Snapshot

  • Nasdaq: +90 points
  • S&P 500: +30 points
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: +282 points
  • Crude Oil: -3.05% / -$2.67 at $85.04