West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices declined after paring daily gains, trading around $89.00 per barrel during European hours on Wednesday. Crude oil prices fell as traders weighed increased Gulf exports against persistent supply risks stemming from the Middle East conflict and a developing storm in the United States. ING commodity strategists warned, however, that the market remains nervous as ongoing attacks on ships keep Middle East supply risks very real.
Gulf Export Flows Rise
According to Reuters, Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman confirmed that the country’s East-West pipeline expanded its flows to 5.8 million barrels per day. Additionally, the head of Vitol noted that approximately 12 million barrels per day of crude and 2 million barrels per day of refined products successfully departed the Middle East over the past 7 to 10 days.
Analysts at Danske Bank highlighted that crude exports from the Middle East have seen a marked recovery, with shipments from the region rising to around 19 million barrels per day in September — up by 4 million barrels per day compared to August and roughly three quarters of pre-war levels, with Saudi Arabia driving most of the rebound. This export pickup has underpinned the recent stabilisation in Brent after its brief dip below $100, even as markets continue to price in persistent risks to regional energy flows.
IEA Emergency Meeting and Strategic Reserve Release
In response to global market pressures, the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) governing board scheduled an informal meeting for Wednesday to discuss a proposed release of oil and diesel stockpiles, following preliminary discussions among European Union diplomats. This came after G7 nations agreed the previous week to release 100 million barrels of crude and diesel, following President Donald Trump’s warning that failure to release reserves could prompt a US export ban on diesel.
Storm Threat to US Infrastructure
Potential supply interruptions in North America could quickly trigger a rebound in oil prices. National forecasters warned that a weather system forming in the Gulf of Mexico is expected to intensify into the Atlantic’s first hurricane of 2026 within 48 hours, threatening offshore US oil and gas infrastructure.
EIA Raises Price Forecasts
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its oil price forecasts for this year and next, citing rapidly declining global inventories, tight diesel markets amid the ongoing Iran war, and recent attacks on Saudi infrastructure that highlight persistent threats to physical energy flows. With supply risks on multiple fronts remaining unresolved, oil prices are likely to stay sensitive to developments in both the Middle East and the Gulf of Mexico in the near term.
