EUR/CHF edged higher to 0.9478 last week but lost momentum again. Initial bias has turned neutral this week. Considering the bearish divergence condition in the 4H MACD, a short-term top could be forming. A break of 0.9420 support would confirm this and bring a deeper fall to the near-term channel floor, now at 0.9387. However, a move above 0.9478 would extend the larger rise from 0.8979 and should target the 161.8% projection of 0.8979 to 0.9264 from 0.9094 at 0.9555.
Medium-Term Outlook
In the bigger picture, the rise from the 0.8979 medium-term bottom is at least reversing the fall from 0.9928 (2024 high), with the prospect of developing into a medium-term uptrend. Further rally should be seen to 0.9660 resistance next. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.9264 resistance-turned-support holds.
Long-Term Outlook
In the long-term picture, the break of 0.9407 support-turned-resistance (2022 low) suggests that the downtrend from 1.2004 (2018 high) has completed with five waves down to 0.8979. This view is supported by bullish divergence conditions in both the weekly and monthly MACD. Further rise should be seen to the 55-month EMA, now at 0.9632. A firm break there would pave the way to the 38.2% retracement of 1.2004 to 0.8979 at 1.0135 over the medium term.
