The US CPI report this week was the main event for markets, and it didn’t quite live up to the billing. There were no major surprises in the numbers, leaving market players needing to settle back into the pattern that preceded it.

For gold, US-Iran developments remain key, but the technical break higher in early August helped to at least deliver some upside momentum. With no meaningful breakthroughs in the Middle East, however, price is struggling to push higher again this week amid a test of another key technical level.

Gold (XAU/USD) daily chart

The break above $4,200 was encouraging and helped drive a push to test the 100-day moving average (red line), currently seen at $4,387.

Buyers have poked and prodded at that level, but even with another round of bids in Asia, it hasn’t been enough to confirm a clean break. The high earlier in the session touched $4,449 before pulling back to around $4,375.

The buying in Asia remains a positive sign, but it needs to be backed up by more constructive progress on the US-Iran conflict. With bond yields still holding on the high side, that may ultimately help cap gold’s advance in the bigger picture heading into the second half of August.

The US CPI report was a potential catalyst to speed things up, but it wasn’t enough to produce much of a jolt for broader markets — gold included.

What’s Next for Gold?

The key question is whether gold buyers can push through the 100-day moving average and then make a move toward the 200-day moving average (blue line), currently at $4,501.

There is significant work to be done, and the headlines will need to back up the upside momentum. Traders will be watching for softer US data to keep a more dovish Fed in play, positive developments on the US-Iran front, or a softer dollar driven by potential intervention threats from Tokyo and Washington.

In other words, buyers are waiting on an additional external catalyst to drive momentum — despite showing willingness to chase a break higher.

Without that catalyst, conditions appear ripe for some exhaustion to set in, as the near-term chart makes fairly evident.

Gold (XAU/USD) hourly chart

With price action stalling over the past few days, buying momentum is starting to lose steam. A break back below the 100-hour moving average (red line) could signal further downside toward $4,325, with scope for a deeper retreat given the lack of fresh buying catalysts.

Buyers remain poised but need to make further progress before momentum fades and near-term control slips — a scenario that could lead to a modest retreat in the latter part of the week.